SMG chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.2% | +0.4% | 7.3% | 55% |
| Day 2 | +0.2% | -0.1% | 3.1% | 48% |
| Day 3 | -0.1% | +0.0% | 2.1% | 47% |
| 5-day | -0.2% | +0.4% | 8.8% | 55% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 beat | 2.52 | 2.82 | +11.7% | -1.0% | -3.8% | -6.0% | -13.8% |
| 2026-04-29 beat | 4.01 | 4.53 | +12.9% | +5.1% | -4.5% | +0.7% | -5.5% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | -1.00 | -0.77 | +23.3% | -0.6% | -0.7% | +3.0% | +11.7% |
| 2025-11-05 beat | -1.98 | -1.96 | +0.8% | -2.0% | +2.9% | +4.4% | -3.9% |
| 2025-07-30 beat | 2.26 | 2.59 | +14.5% | -2.5% | -8.5% | -2.6% | -1.3% |
| 2025-04-30 beat | 3.93 | 3.98 | +1.3% | -2.9% | -5.9% | +6.9% | +18.2% |
| 2025-01-29 beat | -1.23 | -0.89 | +27.8% | +0.7% | -5.8% | -2.6% | -17.9% |
| 2024-11-06 miss | -1.96 | -2.31 | -17.7% | -9.1% | -20.5% | -2.0% | +1.6% |
| 2024-07-31 beat | 1.92 | 2.31 | +20.3% | +3.9% | +11.9% | -12.7% | -9.6% |
| 2024-05-01 beat | 3.44 | 3.69 | +7.3% | +2.1% | -0.4% | -2.5% | +2.1% |
| 2024-02-07 beat | -1.47 | -1.45 | +1.3% | +8.9% | +3.7% | +0.4% | +19.0% |
| 2023-11-01 beat | -2.89 | -2.77 | +4.0% | +10.0% | +18.5% | -3.3% | +10.4% |
| 2023-08-02 miss | 1.46 | 1.17 | -19.7% | -16.0% | -19.0% | -9.8% | -2.1% |
| 2023-05-03 beat | 3.47 | 3.78 | +9.1% | -0.9% | -7.9% | +11.9% | +4.5% |
| 2023-02-01 beat | -1.34 | -1.02 | +24.1% | -0.4% | +11.5% | -1.3% | +5.9% |
| 2022-11-02 miss | -1.99 | -2.04 | -2.5% | +1.7% | -0.4% | +16.1% | +20.7% |
| 2022-08-03 beat | 1.72 | 1.98 | +14.9% | -0.2% | -6.0% | -1.6% | -23.8% |
| 2022-05-03 beat | 4.81 | 5.03 | +4.6% | +2.7% | -0.1% | -7.3% | -8.8% |
| 2022-02-01 miss | -0.73 | -0.88 | -20.0% | +0.1% | -3.0% | -8.6% | -5.2% |
| 2021-11-03 beat | -0.86 | -0.82 | +4.2% | +3.3% | +10.7% | +2.9% | -17.7% |
| 2021-08-04 beat | 3.52 | 3.98 | +13.2% | -0.5% | -6.9% | -1.8% | -2.9% |
| 2021-05-05 beat | 5.57 | 5.64 | +1.3% | +0.0% | +6.3% | -5.8% | -16.9% |
| 2021-02-03 beat | -0.67 | 0.39 | +157.9% | +4.2% | +5.1% | -0.3% | -16.3% |
| 2020-11-04 miss | 0.08 | 0.06 | -22.0% | -3.2% | +3.1% | +1.0% | +6.7% |
| 2020-07-29 beat | 3.42 | 3.80 | +11.0% | +12.1% | +11.8% | -3.4% | +2.5% |
| 2020-05-06 beat | 3.50 | 4.50 | +28.6% | -0.4% | +0.8% | +2.8% | +2.3% |
| 2020-01-29 beat | -1.21 | -1.12 | +7.7% | +4.1% | +5.8% | +7.1% | -8.3% |
| 2019-11-06 miss | -0.85 | -0.91 | -6.5% | -0.7% | +6.6% | +2.8% | -1.3% |
| 2019-07-31 beat | 2.74 | 3.11 | +13.5% | +2.8% | +8.6% | -2.5% | -6.2% |
| 2019-05-01 beat | 3.45 | 3.64 | +5.7% | +4.7% | +6.4% | +1.6% | -1.0% |
| 2019-01-30 miss | -1.24 | -1.39 | -12.3% | +2.9% | +2.1% | +8.2% | +14.6% |
| 2018-11-07 miss | -0.66 | -0.75 | -12.9% | -1.1% | +6.9% | +2.0% | -9.8% |
| 2018-07-31 beat | 2.58 | 2.67 | +3.5% | +1.8% | -3.5% | -0.9% | -3.0% |
| 2018-05-01 miss | 3.31 | 2.88 | -13.0% | -1.4% | +1.2% | -4.4% | +0.6% |
| 2018-01-30 miss | -0.93 | -1.08 | -16.3% | -9.7% | -14.2% | -3.1% | -2.0% |
| 2017-11-07 beat | -0.29 | -0.26 | +11.4% | -1.1% | +3.3% | -4.2% | -1.0% |
| 2017-08-01 beat | 2.51 | 2.63 | +4.8% | +2.7% | -2.3% | +2.6% | +1.1% |
| 2017-05-02 miss | 2.89 | 2.78 | -3.7% | -4.0% | -6.0% | -2.3% | -3.5% |
| 2017-01-31 beat | -1.25 | -0.96 | +23.4% | +2.2% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -0.8% |
| 2016-11-03 miss | -0.28 | -0.30 | -7.7% | +3.0% | +2.0% | -5.0% | +2.7% |
| 2016-08-03 beat | 2.11 | 2.16 | +2.2% | +2.9% | +5.9% | +5.4% | +5.8% |
| 2016-05-03 beat | 2.47 | 3.00 | +21.5% | -1.9% | -5.3% | -0.7% | +2.1% |
| 2016-02-02 beat | -1.13 | -1.13 | +0.1% | -2.0% | -3.1% | -3.9% | +6.1% |
| 2015-11-03 beat | -0.16 | -0.12 | +22.8% | +4.3% | +2.9% | -2.6% | +1.1% |
| 2015-08-04 beat | 2.55 | 2.68 | +5.2% | +4.2% | +7.6% | +1.5% | -4.9% |
| 2015-05-05 miss | 2.26 | 2.06 | -8.9% | +2.7% | +2.8% | -2.0% | -9.0% |
| 2015-02-04 miss | -1.07 | -1.13 | -5.6% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +1.5% | -1.2% |
| 2014-11-05 beat | -0.22 | -0.18 | +19.8% | +1.7% | +0.2% | +0.7% | +4.3% |
| 2014-08-05 beat | 2.26 | 2.34 | +3.7% | +3.6% | +3.2% | +3.4% | +3.0% |
| 2014-05-05 beat | 1.99 | 2.17 | +9.1% | +0.9% | +0.2% | +1.5% | -0.2% |
| 2014-02-06 beat | -1.08 | -1.05 | +3.1% | +0.5% | -2.1% | +1.3% | +5.6% |
| 2013-11-07 beat | -0.37 | -0.18 | +51.1% | +1.2% | -0.2% | +2.3% | +4.0% |
| 2013-08-06 beat | 2.43 | 2.46 | +1.3% | -1.0% | +0.3% | +2.6% | +1.8% |
| 2013-05-06 miss | 2.01 | 1.60 | -20.2% | -0.8% | +4.0% | -0.1% | -5.2% |
| 2013-02-06 beat | -1.13 | -1.12 | +1.0% | +2.0% | +0.6% | -1.2% | +5.8% |
| 2012-11-08 miss | -0.58 | -0.59 | -2.2% | +1.0% | -4.2% | -4.5% | -0.8% |
| 2012-08-09 miss | 1.96 | 1.60 | -18.3% | -5.9% | +3.8% | +0.9% | +0.1% |
| 2012-05-08 beat | 2.06 | 2.15 | +4.4% | -12.7% | -16.1% | -1.7% | -6.2% |
| 2012-02-07 beat | -1.22 | -1.18 | +3.6% | +0.4% | +8.0% | -7.6% | -9.4% |
| 2011-11-08 miss | -0.44 | -0.46 | -4.3% | -2.0% | -6.0% | -1.8% | +1.3% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-14); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.