USB chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.1% | -0.6% | 3.1% | 30% |
| Day 2 | +0.7% | +1.1% | 1.4% | 80% |
| Day 3 | +0.6% | +0.5% | 1.4% | 70% |
| 5-day | +1.7% | +2.0% | 2.3% | 90% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 beat | 1.29 | 1.35 | +5.0% | +0.0% | +1.6% | -1.1% | +2.2% |
| 2026-04-16 beat | 1.14 | 1.18 | +3.4% | -1.1% | -1.6% | +2.1% | -4.3% |
| 2026-01-20 beat | 1.19 | 1.26 | +6.0% | -1.0% | +0.0% | +4.0% | +6.5% |
| 2025-10-16 beat | 1.12 | 1.22 | +9.0% | +1.7% | -1.7% | +4.8% | +3.2% |
| 2025-07-17 beat | 1.07 | 1.11 | +4.1% | -3.3% | -1.0% | +1.9% | +1.6% |
| 2025-04-16 beat | 0.97 | 1.03 | +5.7% | -1.1% | -2.1% | +5.9% | +18.8% |
| 2025-01-15 beat | 1.05 | 1.07 | +1.7% | -5.9% | -5.6% | +2.2% | -0.2% |
| 2024-10-16 beat | 0.99 | 1.03 | +4.0% | +3.7% | +4.7% | -1.4% | +2.2% |
| 2024-07-17 beat | 0.95 | 0.97 | +2.3% | +1.6% | +4.6% | -1.1% | -5.4% |
| 2024-05-01 miss | 0.88 | 0.78 | -11.6% | +1.4% | -0.2% | +1.4% | -3.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.