TOModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
-0.3%
Next 1 week
+1.7%
Next 1 month
+3.3%
Seasonality
Bullish window historically
Next 30 days (to Nov 28): +4.0% median,
72% of the last 39 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Neutral — RSI(2) at 38
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is +0.02%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 1.27 +3.3% · Seasonal tilt +0.0%
$14.1B market cap (#661 US)
$138M/day volume
34% volatility
+1% 1-year
-18% from ATH
52-week range · 37% of the way up · -17% from the high
$123.15$168.36
Congressional trades in TOL Full tracker →
3 members · 4 buys / 3 sells · $7K–$105K disclosed · latest filing Mar 16, 2021.
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-12-08 (Tuesday, after close, in 40 days) · EPS est. 4.89.
1-day std dev
5.7%
Finished up
45%
Biggest pop
+13.8%
Biggest drop
-14.6%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 60 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | beat | 2.94 | 2.97 | +0.9% | +1.8% | +4.0% | +3.7% |
| 2026-05-19 | beat | 2.59 | 2.72 | +5.1% | +3.5% | +9.8% | +11.3% |
| 2026-02-17 | beat | 2.11 | 2.19 | +3.9% | -1.2% | -2.3% | -4.1% |
| 2025-12-08 | miss | 4.88 | 4.58 | -6.0% | -5.0% | -2.4% | +1.8% |
| 2025-08-19 | beat | 3.60 | 3.73 | +3.8% | -0.9% | -0.6% | +4.4% |
| 2025-05-20 | beat | 2.86 | 3.50 | +22.4% | +2.3% | -0.5% | +0.5% |
| 2025-02-18 | miss | 2.05 | 1.75 | -14.8% | -7.8% | -5.9% | -7.7% |
| 2024-12-09 | beat | 4.35 | 4.63 | +6.5% | -5.7% | -6.9% | -15.2% |
| 2024-08-20 | beat | 3.31 | 3.64 | +9.9% | +2.6% | +5.6% | +6.5% |
| 2024-05-21 | beat | 4.15 | 4.75 | +14.5% | -2.5% | -8.5% | -7.3% |
| 2024-02-20 | beat | 1.77 | 2.25 | +27.1% | +7.1% | +3.9% | +8.3% |
| 2023-12-05 | beat | 3.72 | 4.11 | +10.5% | +2.7% | +1.9% | +10.6% |
| 2023-08-22 | beat | 2.87 | 3.76 | +30.7% | +2.4% | +3.9% | +7.5% |
| 2023-05-23 | beat | 1.92 | 2.93 | +52.8% | +1.2% | +2.1% | +7.8% |
| 2023-02-21 | beat | 1.39 | 1.70 | +22.7% | +2.5% | +3.0% | +5.7% |
| 2022-12-06 | beat | 3.94 | 5.63 | +43.1% | +3.1% | +7.7% | +10.6% |
| 2022-08-23 | beat | 2.29 | 2.35 | +2.4% | -3.2% | +1.3% | -4.0% |
| 2022-05-24 | beat | 1.62 | 1.85 | +14.3% | +0.5% | +8.0% | +13.7% |
| 2022-02-22 | beat | 1.15 | 1.24 | +7.9% | -0.9% | -6.4% | +5.0% |
| 2021-12-07 | beat | 2.50 | 3.02 | +20.8% | +0.1% | +1.7% | -0.1% |
| 2021-08-24 | beat | 1.54 | 1.87 | +21.4% | +0.5% | +4.3% | +5.7% |
| 2021-05-25 | beat | 0.81 | 1.01 | +23.9% | +0.6% | +3.8% | +0.2% |
| 2021-02-23 | beat | 0.45 | 0.76 | +67.0% | -3.2% | +3.2% | -3.0% |
| 2020-12-07 | beat | 1.23 | 1.55 | +25.7% | -4.9% | -7.9% | -8.5% |
| 2020-08-25 | beat | 0.67 | 0.90 | +33.8% | +1.5% | -2.1% | -5.4% |
| 2020-05-27 | beat | 0.41 | 0.59 | +45.2% | +6.2% | -2.3% | +4.4% |
| 2020-02-25 | miss | 0.46 | 0.41 | -10.7% | -10.6% | -14.6% | -8.5% |
| 2019-12-09 | beat | 1.30 | 1.41 | +8.4% | -2.3% | -4.9% | -4.4% |
| 2019-08-20 | beat | 0.81 | 1.00 | +22.9% | -3.3% | -4.5% | -3.3% |
| 2019-05-21 | beat | 0.75 | 0.87 | +16.8% | -4.5% | -4.6% | -7.5% |
| 2019-02-26 | beat | 0.61 | 0.76 | +24.1% | +0.5% | -2.5% | -6.6% |
| 2018-12-04 | beat | 1.84 | 2.11 | +14.7% | -7.1% | -1.6% | -1.8% |
| 2018-08-21 | beat | 1.03 | 1.32 | +28.2% | +10.0% | +13.8% | +6.9% |
| 2018-05-22 | beat | 0.76 | 0.79 | +2.9% | -4.0% | -9.6% | -8.5% |
| 2018-02-27 | beat | 0.54 | 0.66 | +21.1% | +2.0% | -5.1% | -5.2% |
| 2017-12-05 | miss | 1.20 | 1.17 | -2.1% | -9.2% | -7.4% | -7.0% |
| 2017-08-22 | beat | 0.68 | 0.70 | +2.7% | -1.2% | -2.6% | -1.1% |
| 2017-05-23 | beat | 0.63 | 0.73 | +15.5% | +2.2% | -0.7% | -2.9% |
| 2017-02-22 | beat | 0.35 | 0.42 | +19.4% | +7.2% | +6.1% | +9.2% |
| 2016-12-06 | beat | 0.99 | 1.16 | +17.3% | +4.5% | +4.8% | +5.5% |
| 2016-08-23 | beat | 0.61 | 0.62 | +2.0% | +1.7% | +8.8% | +6.5% |
| 2016-05-24 | beat | 0.46 | 0.53 | +13.9% | +4.4% | +8.7% | +7.6% |
| 2016-02-23 | beat | 0.40 | 0.41 | +2.5% | +0.8% | +3.8% | +9.3% |
| 2015-12-08 | beat | 0.83 | 0.84 | +1.2% | -5.3% | -7.0% | -10.5% |
| 2015-08-25 | miss | 0.49 | 0.36 | -27.3% | +1.3% | -7.8% | -5.2% |
| 2015-05-27 | beat | 0.35 | 0.42 | +21.2% | +0.1% | -2.2% | -0.7% |
| 2015-02-24 | beat | 0.29 | 0.45 | +55.8% | +4.5% | +3.9% | +1.6% |
| 2014-12-10 | beat | 0.73 | 0.89 | +22.4% | -0.7% | -7.8% | -8.4% |
| 2014-09-03 | beat | 0.46 | 0.53 | +15.1% | +0.4% | -4.7% | -5.0% |
| 2014-05-28 | beat | 0.26 | 0.35 | +34.4% | +3.5% | +2.1% | +0.9% |
| 2014-02-25 | beat | 0.19 | 0.25 | +35.1% | -1.4% | -0.2% | +3.1% |
| 2013-12-10 | beat | 0.44 | 0.52 | +17.7% | +2.7% | -0.7% | -0.5% |
| 2013-08-21 | beat | 0.26 | 0.26 | +0.8% | +0.3% | +0.0% | -3.2% |
| 2013-05-22 | beat | 0.07 | 0.09 | +30.0% | +4.4% | +2.9% | -4.4% |
| 2013-02-20 | miss | 0.11 | 0.03 | -76.0% | -2.8% | -9.1% | -5.5% |
| 2012-12-04 | miss | 0.24 | 0.07 | -71.4% | +4.0% | -1.8% | -6.4% |
| 2012-08-22 | beat | 0.18 | 0.25 | +41.9% | +4.3% | +3.8% | +2.4% |
| 2012-05-23 | beat | 0.04 | 0.10 | +141.8% | +0.9% | +2.7% | +0.9% |
| 2012-02-22 | miss | 0.04 | — | -100.0% | -3.3% | -5.1% | -1.0% |
| 2011-12-06 | beat | 0.06 | 0.20 | +231.2% | +1.1% | +2.7% | -5.1% |
Not investment advice.
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