ARCC chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.1% | +0.2% | 2.0% | 50% |
| Day 2 | -1.0% | -1.1% | 1.4% | 30% |
| Day 3 | +0.0% | -0.2% | 1.6% | 30% |
| 5-day | -0.1% | -0.5% | 2.7% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 miss | 0.47 | 0.47 | -0.6% | +0.3% | -1.7% | +3.3% | +6.3% |
| 2026-04-28 miss | 0.48 | 0.47 | -2.5% | -0.3% | +1.7% | +2.3% | -0.6% |
| 2026-02-04 beat | 0.50 | 0.50 | +0.4% | +1.9% | +2.2% | +1.8% | -4.2% |
| 2025-10-28 miss | 0.50 | 0.50 | -0.7% | +0.9% | +1.2% | -1.5% | -0.3% |
| 2025-07-29 miss | 0.51 | 0.50 | -1.1% | -0.1% | -0.7% | -0.3% | -1.0% |
| 2025-04-29 miss | 0.54 | 0.50 | -6.7% | -1.6% | -2.7% | +0.0% | +6.4% |
| 2025-02-05 miss | 0.58 | 0.55 | -5.0% | -1.3% | -3.0% | -0.8% | -0.4% |
| 2024-10-30 miss | 0.59 | 0.58 | -2.5% | +0.3% | -1.1% | +0.3% | +3.8% |
| 2024-07-30 beat | 0.58 | 0.61 | +5.0% | +0.5% | +1.9% | -4.4% | -1.5% |
| 2024-05-01 miss | 0.60 | 0.59 | -1.1% | -0.3% | +1.2% | -0.3% | +3.5% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.