ARCC chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.1% | +0.7% | 2.8% | 55% |
| Day 2 | -0.2% | -0.5% | 1.8% | 40% |
| Day 3 | +0.3% | +0.0% | 1.4% | 45% |
| 5-day | -0.0% | -0.3% | 3.1% | 45% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 miss | 0.47 | 0.47 | -0.6% | +0.3% | -1.7% | +3.3% | +6.3% |
| 2026-04-28 miss | 0.48 | 0.47 | -2.5% | -0.3% | +1.7% | +2.3% | -0.6% |
| 2026-02-04 beat | 0.50 | 0.50 | +0.4% | +1.9% | +2.2% | +1.8% | -4.2% |
| 2025-10-28 miss | 0.50 | 0.50 | -0.7% | +0.9% | +1.2% | -1.5% | -0.3% |
| 2025-07-29 miss | 0.51 | 0.50 | -1.1% | -0.1% | -0.7% | -0.3% | -1.0% |
| 2025-04-29 miss | 0.54 | 0.50 | -6.7% | -1.6% | -2.7% | +0.0% | +6.4% |
| 2025-02-05 miss | 0.58 | 0.55 | -5.0% | -1.3% | -3.0% | -0.8% | -0.4% |
| 2024-10-30 miss | 0.59 | 0.58 | -2.5% | +0.3% | -1.1% | +0.3% | +3.8% |
| 2024-07-30 beat | 0.58 | 0.61 | +5.0% | +0.5% | +1.9% | -4.4% | -1.5% |
| 2024-05-01 miss | 0.60 | 0.59 | -1.1% | -0.3% | +1.2% | -0.3% | +3.5% |
| 2024-02-07 beat | 0.60 | 0.63 | +5.3% | +0.7% | +1.3% | +0.2% | +1.6% |
| 2023-10-24 beat | 0.58 | 0.59 | +1.1% | +1.5% | +1.0% | -0.2% | +4.5% |
| 2023-07-25 beat | 0.57 | 0.59 | +4.0% | +0.4% | -1.1% | +0.6% | -1.2% |
| 2023-04-25 miss | 0.59 | 0.57 | -2.9% | -1.0% | -1.8% | -0.4% | +3.5% |
| 2023-02-07 beat | 0.56 | 0.63 | +12.1% | +1.1% | +2.2% | -2.1% | -7.9% |
| 2022-10-25 beat | 0.49 | 0.50 | +1.5% | +1.5% | +4.8% | +2.8% | +3.4% |
| 2022-07-26 beat | 0.44 | 0.46 | +4.4% | +0.9% | +1.7% | +0.7% | +4.6% |
| 2022-04-26 miss | 0.47 | 0.42 | -9.8% | -1.2% | -8.8% | +3.7% | -3.5% |
| 2022-02-09 beat | 0.56 | 0.58 | +4.3% | +1.0% | -1.2% | -2.4% | -9.4% |
| 2021-10-26 beat | 0.45 | 0.47 | +5.4% | +0.9% | +0.4% | -0.9% | -3.6% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.