ARCC chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.2% | +0.4% | 2.2% | 58% |
| Day 2 | -0.1% | +0.2% | 1.7% | 52% |
| Day 3 | +0.0% | -0.1% | 1.0% | 47% |
| 5-day | +0.5% | +0.6% | 3.2% | 58% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 miss | 0.47 | 0.47 | -0.6% | +0.3% | -1.7% | +3.3% | +6.3% |
| 2026-04-28 miss | 0.48 | 0.47 | -2.5% | -0.3% | +1.7% | +2.3% | -0.6% |
| 2026-02-04 beat | 0.50 | 0.50 | +0.4% | +1.9% | +2.2% | +1.8% | -4.2% |
| 2025-10-28 miss | 0.50 | 0.50 | -0.7% | +0.9% | +1.2% | -1.5% | -0.3% |
| 2025-07-29 miss | 0.51 | 0.50 | -1.1% | -0.1% | -0.7% | -0.3% | -1.0% |
| 2025-04-29 miss | 0.54 | 0.50 | -6.7% | -1.6% | -2.7% | +0.0% | +6.4% |
| 2025-02-05 miss | 0.58 | 0.55 | -5.0% | -1.3% | -3.0% | -0.8% | -0.4% |
| 2024-10-30 miss | 0.59 | 0.58 | -2.5% | +0.3% | -1.1% | +0.3% | +3.8% |
| 2024-07-30 beat | 0.58 | 0.61 | +5.0% | +0.5% | +1.9% | -4.4% | -1.5% |
| 2024-05-01 miss | 0.60 | 0.59 | -1.1% | -0.3% | +1.2% | -0.3% | +3.5% |
| 2024-02-07 beat | 0.60 | 0.63 | +5.3% | +0.7% | +1.3% | +0.2% | +1.6% |
| 2023-10-24 beat | 0.58 | 0.59 | +1.1% | +1.5% | +1.0% | -0.2% | +4.5% |
| 2023-07-25 beat | 0.57 | 0.59 | +4.0% | +0.4% | -1.1% | +0.6% | -1.2% |
| 2023-04-25 miss | 0.59 | 0.57 | -2.9% | -1.0% | -1.8% | -0.4% | +3.5% |
| 2023-02-07 beat | 0.56 | 0.63 | +12.1% | +1.1% | +2.2% | -2.1% | -7.9% |
| 2022-10-25 beat | 0.49 | 0.50 | +1.5% | +1.5% | +4.8% | +2.8% | +3.4% |
| 2022-07-26 beat | 0.44 | 0.46 | +4.4% | +0.9% | +1.7% | +0.7% | +4.6% |
| 2022-04-26 miss | 0.47 | 0.42 | -9.8% | -1.2% | -8.8% | +3.7% | -3.5% |
| 2022-02-09 beat | 0.56 | 0.58 | +4.3% | +1.0% | -1.2% | -2.4% | -9.4% |
| 2021-10-26 beat | 0.45 | 0.47 | +5.4% | +0.9% | +0.4% | -0.9% | -3.6% |
| 2021-07-28 beat | 0.42 | 0.53 | +24.7% | +0.2% | +1.3% | -2.5% | -2.2% |
| 2021-04-28 beat | 0.42 | 0.43 | +1.6% | -0.6% | -1.2% | -1.4% | +0.6% |
| 2021-02-10 beat | 0.40 | 0.55 | +36.0% | +1.3% | +2.7% | -2.5% | +0.4% |
| 2020-10-27 beat | 0.38 | 0.39 | +2.0% | +1.3% | +1.5% | +0.6% | +18.1% |
| 2020-08-04 beat | 0.38 | 0.39 | +1.7% | +0.0% | +0.8% | +2.5% | +0.3% |
| 2020-05-05 beat | 0.43 | 0.54 | +25.2% | +6.2% | +2.3% | +6.9% | +23.1% |
| 2020-02-12 miss | 0.45 | 0.44 | -2.6% | +0.0% | -1.1% | +0.2% | -22.9% |
| 2019-10-30 beat | 0.46 | 0.50 | +8.6% | +0.5% | +0.0% | +0.7% | +1.1% |
| 2019-07-30 beat | 0.44 | 0.49 | +11.9% | +0.3% | +2.6% | -1.7% | -0.1% |
| 2019-04-30 beat | 0.42 | 0.48 | +12.3% | +0.7% | +1.9% | -1.6% | -1.4% |
| 2019-02-12 beat | 0.41 | 0.48 | +17.4% | +2.3% | +2.8% | +0.9% | +0.1% |
| 2018-10-31 beat | 0.39 | 0.44 | +12.4% | +2.7% | +5.5% | +2.0% | -0.7% |
| 2018-08-01 miss | 0.39 | 0.38 | -1.9% | +0.6% | +2.1% | +0.9% | +1.4% |
| 2018-05-02 miss | 0.38 | 0.34 | -10.1% | -0.1% | +0.4% | +2.2% | +5.3% |
| 2018-02-13 beat | 0.37 | 0.38 | +2.0% | +0.2% | +2.1% | +0.1% | -3.6% |
| 2017-11-02 beat | 0.35 | 0.36 | +1.4% | +0.1% | -1.2% | +2.1% | +2.1% |
| 2017-08-02 miss | 0.36 | 0.34 | -6.1% | -0.2% | +0.2% | -0.6% | -2.4% |
| 2017-05-03 miss | 0.38 | 0.32 | -14.8% | -1.5% | -4.2% | -2.3% | +0.2% |
| 2017-02-22 beat | 0.39 | 0.44 | +14.1% | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.3% | -2.3% |
| 2016-11-02 beat | 0.38 | 0.44 | +14.9% | -0.3% | +0.5% | +1.2% | +5.6% |
| 2016-08-03 miss | 0.38 | 0.34 | -11.1% | -0.1% | +1.8% | +0.1% | +5.0% |
| 2016-05-04 miss | 0.39 | 0.36 | -7.0% | -0.5% | +1.2% | -0.1% | -3.2% |
| 2016-02-24 beat | 0.39 | 0.47 | +21.2% | -0.5% | +0.0% | +9.0% | +12.1% |
| 2015-11-04 beat | 0.38 | 0.42 | +11.5% | +1.1% | +0.3% | +0.6% | +1.5% |
| 2015-08-04 miss | 0.38 | 0.35 | -7.1% | +1.1% | -0.2% | +0.3% | -3.6% |
| 2015-05-04 miss | 0.40 | 0.39 | -2.0% | -0.9% | -1.9% | -1.1% | +0.8% |
| 2015-02-26 beat | 0.39 | 0.41 | +4.0% | +0.9% | +1.4% | +2.0% | -0.5% |
| 2014-11-04 beat | 0.38 | 0.40 | +4.8% | +0.5% | +0.0% | +2.6% | +0.8% |
| 2014-08-05 miss | 0.38 | 0.34 | -9.7% | -1.6% | -2.3% | +1.8% | +3.8% |
| 2014-05-06 miss | 0.39 | 0.38 | -2.5% | -0.6% | -2.8% | -2.2% | +1.8% |
| 2014-02-26 miss | 0.41 | 0.39 | -5.0% | +0.4% | -1.3% | -0.7% | -2.8% |
| 2013-11-05 beat | 0.39 | 0.48 | +21.9% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +0.9% | +3.9% |
| 2013-08-06 miss | 0.39 | 0.38 | -3.4% | +0.1% | -0.8% | -3.2% | -1.6% |
| 2013-05-07 miss | 0.39 | 0.38 | -3.6% | +0.1% | -0.8% | +0.4% | -5.9% |
| 2013-02-27 miss | 0.41 | 0.38 | -6.7% | +0.3% | +1.7% | +0.4% | -2.0% |
| 2012-11-05 beat | 0.41 | 0.42 | +2.0% | +1.8% | +0.2% | -3.2% | +0.3% |
| 2012-08-07 beat | 0.39 | 0.40 | +3.2% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +2.7% | +3.3% |
| 2012-05-08 miss | 0.39 | 0.38 | -2.0% | -1.0% | -1.3% | -1.4% | +0.1% |
| 2012-02-28 beat | 0.39 | 0.45 | +15.2% | +1.5% | +1.3% | -0.7% | -0.8% |
| 2011-11-08 beat | 0.37 | 0.48 | +30.7% | +2.2% | -0.8% | -0.7% | +0.3% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.